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UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado GarryAug 15, 2026

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando

Light Heavyweight3 roundsCompleted
red cornerRT
Rafael Tobias“Bipolar”
45%model win prob
blue cornerLF
55%model win prob
Winner
def.Lucas FernandoKO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:10
Model favored Lucas Fernando (55%) — correct
Go the distance
Yes27%
No73%
Method of victory
KO / TKO43%
Submission30%
Decision27%
Exact outcome
Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO24%
Rafael Tobias by KO/TKO19%
Lucas Fernando by Submission17%
Lucas Fernando by Decision14%
Rafael Tobias by Submission14%
Rafael Tobias by Decision13%
Fight stats
Rafael TobiasstatLucas Fernando
Totals
13/56 (23%)Sig. strikes69/115 (60%)
14/58Total strikes69/115
1/1 (100%)Takedowns0/0 (0%)
0Knockdowns2
0Sub. attempts0
0Reversals0
0:55Control time0:09
Sig. strikes by target
5/47Head37/80
5/5Body18/20
3/4Leg14/15
Sig. strikes by position
11/52Distance66/111
1/2Clinch1/1
1/2Ground2/3